In recent decades, there has been a clear trend on a global scale towards increasing natural and anthropogenic risks, in many cases accompanied by considerable human casualties and significant economic damage. In 2020 and 2021, the COVID-19 pandemic has shown the significance of adequate risk and crisis policy management. Given these circumstances, it is essential for each country to identify the risks relevant to it and to have developed strategies for prevention and management at different levels to minimize the damage in the event of their occurrence. Research (e.g., Report on the Functional Analysis of Horizontal Disaster Risk Reduction Policy, in Bulgarian) shows that even with the existence of a legal regulation focusing on risk assessment and prevention, the activities are still related mainly to overcoming the damage caused. Although there are normative requirements in terms of prevention, they are not always implemented adequately. That is why experts recommend emphasizing risk assessment and prevention, which in the long term will help reduce the losses, the extent, and the dimension of the damages caused.
The relevance of the topic is reinforced by the fact that in the coming decades a number of changes are expected on a global, regional and national scale, which could lead to an increase in the frequency and scale of crises and disasters of various kinds. Climate change leading to different natural disasters should be mentioned here; economic and banking crises leading to recession, unemployment and poverty; social and political crises in third world countries and new waves of immigrants to Europe and Bulgaria, etc.
Countries that build their national policies, legislation and institutional framework aimed at reducing risks of different nature and those that are able to develop and pursue progress and results in this area through specific and measurable indicators have significantly greater potential for risk management. This is realized by reaching a broad consensus, leading to the engagement of society in achieving compliance with the measures to prevent, reduce and overcome risks.
The making of effective governmental decisions and actions requires them to be based on scientific knowledge, to be in accordance with the specific social context in which the risks are generated, with the behaviour and strategies of other entities – a circumstance which makes the research, included in this project intransitive.
Objective of the project:
By identifying, systematizing and analysing the individual and institutional strategies for prevention and management of risks at macro, meso and micro level, to derive their specifics, to establish and explain their determinism in a specific social context, to assess their potential effectiveness and based on that to formulate proposals for stimulating effective practices.
Tasks set by the project:
- On the basis of expert assessments, from the range of risks of practical importance for the Bulgarian society to select a set of natural, ecological and social (in a broad sense) risks, the strategies for the management of which to be studied and analysed;
- To develop a methodology for analysis of strategies and their implementation by state institutions and economic entities (central and local state bodies, economic entities – e.g. in agriculture as strongly influenced by natural and environmental risks, etc.) and by individual entities;
- Using the information gathered through Empirical sociological studies to identify common personal and institutional strategies and real practices regarding the selected risks, to be systematized and analysed in content;
- To establish when developing the strategies whether different forms of prosocial behaviour are taken into account (e.g. volunteering), whether organizational forms for its incorporation into institutional actions are envisaged;
- To establish, analyse and explain the existing dependencies between the developed and implemented strategies and the economic, institutional-normative and socio-cultural context. To establish what information is used in the development of strategies, what are the limitations in this regard;
- To determine the attitudes for actions for prevention, protection and overcoming the consequences of risks and their dependencies and to analyse them in a socio-cultural context;
- On the basis of the analysis to outline strategies that combine optimal matching of attitudes and capabilities of social actors, on the one hand, and efficiency, on the other;
- To propose practical mechanisms and forms to ensure that decision-making concerning national public policies and legislation in the field of prevention, reduction, management and coping with the effects of different groups of risks are based on indisputable objective data and scientific evidence.
Results – Field research conducted:
- An empirical sociological study, “Prevention and Risk Management,” was conducted, nationally representative for the population over 18 years of age (2022).
- An empirical sociological study “Challenges for Students” (2022) was conducted in 4 cities – Sofia, Plovdiv, Ruse, and Haskovo. The study grew into an international comparative study with Serbia
- A study (46 in-depth interviews), “Business in Conditions of Risk and Uncertainty,” was conducted (2022)
- An empirical sociological study, “Challenges and Problems for Producers in Agriculture,” was conducted (2023) – nationally representative for registered producers of agricultural products.
- An online survey and in-depth interviews were conducted (2022) (by doctoral student D. Vasileva) on the topic of environmental risk (in a specific case – Bansko).
- Conducted a study “Man in the Digital World: Opportunities and Risks” (2024) – second study among students in Sofia, Plovdiv, Ruse and Haskovo with a focus on the risks of actions in an electronic environment.
- “Risks facing children with parents working abroad” (2024) – in-depth interviews with teachers and educators from eight primary schools in the Ruse district, with representatives of transnational families.
Results – Scientific achievements of the project:
Significant risks for the individual and society were studied. Based on information from a series of empirical studies – nationally representative and among different social groups, the perception and assessment of risks, prevention strategies, their specifics and determinants, and assessments of the relevant activities of state authorities were established.
The relationships between social vulnerability, structural inequalities, and coping strategies were analyzed. It has been found that risk perceptions, actual damage experienced, and the choice of coping strategies follow the lines of structurally unequally distributed resources. Where public and market mechanisms are complex to access, the burden shifts to households and their informal networks. Households with more resources seek institutional protection and preventive measures, while those with fewer resources rely on informal networks and assistance after the event.
Pro-environmental practices are not simply individual choices, but are socially conditioned actions dependent on public policies, institutional support, and infrastructural adequacy.
Attitudes and practices for responding to risks to material well-being are passive strategies, activity is poorly represented, and it is often implemented in some form of hidden economy. Disturbing in view of the future and the prospects for brightening the economy is the widespread tolerant attitude among students towards paying in cash.
In agriculture, a risk to food security, which is a component of national security, is the imbalance between its sectors, as well as the polarization of farms by size. Producers identify a set of serious barriers in their work that can be influenced by decisions and actions of an organizational and managerial nature, e.g., too frequent changes in the regulatory framework, paperwork, and poor organization of the work of state bodies, unpredictably changing economic environment, and the shadow economy.